Bitcoin dropping to $25,000 or lower is unlikely thanks to hodlers hoping for all-time highs, not speculative traders, new research says.
No major selling from “maturing” hodlers
Bitcoin has yet to wow the market with its all-time highs this halving cycle, and this has contributed to a loss of faith among some investors.
At the same time, on-chain indicators remain much more bullish than spot price action, and those investors still in the market support the idea that BTC/USD will go far higher in the future.
This is thanks to a lack of short-term holders (STHs) on the market, Root noted. Even the most recent all-time highs of $69,000 in November 2021 came with relatively few speculatory bets — something that greatly contrasts with the all-time high during the last halving cycle in December 2017.
What’s more, long-term holders (LTHs) hoping for fresh price discovery are now the ones supporting the market, not new STHs looking to “buy the dip.”
“With the HODL Army growing it’s allowing us to make new ATH’s (69k top) without barely any STH’s in the market,” Root explained.
“Since we didn’t reach prices above 100K, which so many expected, many still believe this will eventually happen and might therefore hold on to their coins.”
As such, Bitcoin’s realized price — the average price at which all coins last moved, which is sitting around $25,000 — seems an unlikely target, thanks to the unwillingness of LTHs to sell.
While some chose to do so recently, this was because they bought in at highs earlier in 2021 and wanted to cut their losses, Root continued. More broadly, however, those who purchased during Bitcoin’s first trip above $60,000 have chosen to hodl, not sell.
“Conclusion: Some exhaustion coming from the people that bought the run to first 64k peak, but many still holding,” Root tweeted.
“Older LTH’s mainly holding strong. No real reason to see a drop below realised price.”
Plenty of cold feet over Q2 price action
Driven by macro factors, this could see $30,000 return — or worse, the 200-week moving average at $21,000 coming in as support.
This all depends on the United States Federal Reserve and its reaction to inflation, they say, which is far from clear due to the limited scope for containment measures.
However, should heavy-handed policy become the norm, stocks, commodities and risk assets would be hit hard — meaning heavy headwinds for crypto.
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